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Monday, December 10, 2012

Jonathan’s historical burden

The Punch - Nigeria's Most Widely Read Newspaper
Breaking News, information and opinion in Nigeria
Jonathan's historical burden
Dec 10th 2012, 23:00

Whichever way you want to look at it, President Goodluck Jonathan has made history–”good” and “bad” history, that is. For present purposes, good history makes people feel good because their leader does what is right and advances their welfare. When a leader makes good history, the people refer to his or her era more or less as the “Golden” Age. They look back to the period with nostalgia. That’s how the people of the South-West look back to the Chief Obafemi Awolowo era as the Premier of the old Western Region.

Unlike Awolowo, however, whatever good history Jonathan has made, the primary beneficiaries have been predominantly himself, his family, his friends and cronies, and Otuoke, his village, where he built a Federal university, had a church built as a gift from a contractor, and had a number of roads constructed. His good history is primarily selfish history, not the Awolowo-type of social history in which the larger population had a share.

This is not to say that Jonathan has not made social history as I just defined it. His administration has done some good things for the general population but nothing really stands out as memorable. Yes, they say there has been some slight improvement in power supply but generators still supply more power to most households. The nine new universities Jonathan established are unwarranted while existing ones remain under-funded, under-staffed, and under-equipped. All considered, the type of social history Jonathan has made is predominantly bad history, the kind of history that makes people feel bad because their leader does little or nothing to advance their social welfare. It is the kind of history that the people look back to with much regret, wondering why they put such a person in power in the first place.

A truly lucky man, Jonathan came to power with tremendous support and high expectations. Part of the unique history he has made so far is arguably traceable to luck, sheer luck. How many Nigerians but Jonathan became Governor and later President as a result of the misfortunes of the incumbents? How many Nigerians but Jonathan became President from oil-rich Niger Delta and from a minority ethnic background? Finally, how many Nigerian Presidents but Jonathan came to power with a doctorate degree?

Sadly, however, these unique achievements are likely to fade because Jonathan has not capitalised on them as he should have. Therefore, they will pale in comparison with his negative achievements when his legacy as President is assessed by future historians. Unless there are remarkable improvements over the next two years, history will reveal that no Nigerian President came to power with so much promise, and promised more on the campaign trail, but delivered less, than Jonathan. His is not simply a case of under-achievement and the disappointment of voters. His is a sad case of mortgaging the future of the country and causing its failure and possible disintegration.

Jonathan’s negatives first became apparent during his time as a vice-president, a position he attained as a politically expedient last-minute choice. He was generally viewed as a docile VP and of little consequence in the corridors of presidential power, in very sharp contrast to his predecessor in that position, namely, Atiku Abubakar, who became so powerful that his boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, had to curb his excesses. As a result of Jonathan’s docility, he was effectively sidelined by a cabal, which manipulated the Presidency to its advantage. Nigerians watched his predicament in pain until concerned citizens through the help of the Save Nigeria Group came to his aid by urging the National Assembly to declare him as the Acting President while his boss, the late President Umaru Yar’Adua, was hopitalised abroad. But he eventually had “greatness thrust upon” him (a la William Shakespeare), when he was first sworn in as President on May 6, 2010, following the death of his boss.

Jonathan’s negatives increased when his declaration to run for the Presidency, following the expiration of his boss’s term, engendered the most virile political venom in the nation’s history from some Northern leaders, who insisted it was their turn to lead. As Jonathan’s victory became apparent hours after the polls closed on April 16, 2011, the verbal thuggery that accompanied the presidential campaign eventuated into the most violent post-election protests in the nation’s history. Jonathan’s inability to control the negative rhetoric of the presidential campaign and the breakdown of intelligence, police, and army capabilities during the post-election violence were symbolic of the negative achievements that came to characterise his Presidency. Even more symbolic was his failure to follow through on the recommendations of the committee he set up to investigate the protests. He has so far handled other committee recommendations in like manner.

The escalation of Boko Haram’s activities hours after Jonathan’s inauguration on May 29, 2011, cannot but be interpreted within the context of his participation in presidential politics. Today, after claiming thousands of lives, destroying property worth billions of naira, and suppressing the celebration of two successive independence anniversaries, Boko Haram's activities remain the greatest security risk in the country. With armed robbers, kidnappers, and pirates in toe, the Jonathan Presidency is turning out to be the most insecure period in the nation’s history since the Civil War (1967-70).

The President’s failure to curb terrorism and other security threats has become a template for assessing his failure in other sectors, particularly infrastructure, education, health care, and agriculture. Since there are no appreciable improvements in these sectors, industrial, manufacturing, and small business sectors remain stunted. As a result, no new private sector jobs are being created. No wonder unemployment figures keep rising. Jonathan’s campaign promise to create millions of jobs has fallen flat on its face.

What is worse, his administration is also turning out to be the most corrupt, at least since the military era. Despite Dr. Doyin Okupe’s contestation of SUNDAY PUNCH‘s figure of N5tn in stolen funds under Jonathan, it is common knowledge that the administration is corrupt and condones corruption. Okupe may be right that part of the funds may have been stolen before Jonathan. The real issue is that the loot escalated under Jonathan. Not only have corruption multiplied, the culprits remain largely unscathed because Jonathan has failed to implement the recommendations of corruption probes. The result is a further slip toward the bottom of the Corruption Perception Index.

What is most painful about Jonathan’s negative achievements is the irony of his self transformation. The son of a canoe builder, who, admittedly, never wore shoes to school, became a globe-trotting spendthrift in control of 10 presidential jets. Consider these mind-boggling figures incurred by Jonathan in just over two years, in addition to N5tn of stolen funds: Over N23bn on three new jets; over N9bn per year on maintaining 10 jets in the Presidential fleet; N3.354bn expended on foreign trips; over N2bn on entertainments; $9bn in foreign debt and $6.48bn in domestic debt. According to the Debt Management Office, Nigeria’s foreign debt profile may hit $25bn by 2015!

Largely for sentimental reasons, Jonathan was excused in 2011 for having no appreciable record to run on. It should not be so in 2015, if he decides to run.

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