This year's United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, the 18th edition, currently taking place (from November 26 to December 7), is by all means a very remarkable one. Not just because the host country Qatar, is notorious for having the world's highest per capita carbon emissions, but because of some other interesting reasons. One, the UNFCCC COP 18 in Doha marks the first time the climate conference is hosted in the Gulf region, which is a remarkable pointer to a future of an all-inclusive global climate consciousness, simply because the region is known for making money from selling fossil fuels, and its affluent capital cities are massive consumers of state-subsidised energy, with no care in the world about poverty. Two, it is the first climate change conference to host a Gender Day when the importance of women with regard to climate change is evaluated and put in its proper perspective. Three, and most importantly, it is the one that will test the resolve of the world community concerning making Kyoto Protocol see life again in new amendments needed to launch a second commitment period, which commences January 1, 2013.
I read an interesting American blog comment the other day which said that the Kyoto Protocol played a prominent role in last year's negotiations when its future looked to be hanging by a thread and ''developing countries vowed that it would not die on African soil''. Surely, I am proud that Kyoto did not die on African soul; in fact, it got some very creative embellishments unlike what the Gulf is giving to it in Doha. In contrast to Qatar, where the bureaucrats, business people and environmentalists who are gathered have no choice but to use the city's climate-killing energy and drink its water from desalination plants – making seawater drinkable is one of the most energy-intensive processes – as that is their only source in a country where there are no renewables to speak of, South Africa hosted the climate talks last year under a perceptible green atmosphere, with carbon emission savings of 40,751 kilogrammes of CO2 and recycled material from the conference totalling 32,030 kilogrammes.
In summary, Durban COP 17 last year extended the Kyoto Protocol, the only global pact that enforces carbon cuts; agreed on the format of a fund to help poor countries tackle climate change; and mapped out a path to a legally binding agreement on emission reductions. At the end of the conference, delegates agreed to start work this year on a new legally binding treaty to cut greenhouse gases to be decided by 2015 and to come into force by 2020. The process for doing so, called the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, would "develop a new protocol, another legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force" that would be applicable under the UN climate convention. Therefore, the task before the nations in Doha is to make the agreements reached in Durban see the light of day, not only in letter but in spirit, without this, it will only bring down the curtain on the Kyoto Protocol.
Although there had been stalling and posturing, we must not lose sight of the big picture: the world has agreed to structure a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. Granted, the group of developed countries signing up this time will be much smaller than in the first go-round as major emitting countries such as Japan, Russia and Canada have walked out from the agreements, there is still a lot of weight on the table that is enough to turn the tide especially for us as a developing nation. The European Union, Australia, Norway, Switzerland, Belarus and Kazakhstan will make a second round of commitments. This year, the EU almost brought a disastrous political dimension to the fight against climate change when it announced its airline carbon tax, but finally agreed to suspend its rules that required airlines flying to and fro airports in the EU to pay for their carbon emissions. The rules had been unpopular with countries outside Europe such as the US, China and India, though EU's Climate Commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, said she had proposed 'stopping the clock for one year'.
The truth is that the climate disasters of this year have particularly shown that climate change is not stopping its own clock. This is what should be at the back of the delegates' minds as they negotiate a new commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol, because the first phase runs out at the end of 2012. For the US delegation, which is always the most recalcitrant in agreeing to specified emission cuts, the recent Superstorm Sandy should be a veritable reminder that the country is not spared from climate disasters, and should lead in the fight against climate change just as it leads in military operations to keep the world peace. Thank God, President Barack Obama in his re-election victory speech recently voiced his commitment to eliminating ''the destructive power of the warming planet'', though it remains to be seen how he intends to match actions with his words.
Instructively, three dynamics are at play in Doha, which should be resolved for a fruitful, peaceful and historic end to the talks. The first is that developing nations are insistent that richer countries are not aiming high enough in cutting carbon. The second is that, though it has been agreed that developed nations would raise the funds to help developing countries fight climate change, depicted in the establishment of the Global Climate Fund, the source of the money remains a thorny issue. Finally, the major emitters, including US, Canada, Russia and Japan say they will not take on new carbon targets under an extension of the Kyoto Protocol, thereby effectively bringing in the unnecessary politics of economic superpowers into the climate matrix.
For Nigeria, this year's shocking ecological disasters are enough to give our delegates the fillip to push spirited arguments for technology transfer and funds required for effective adaptation strategies. I am saddened that unlike what we do in other spheres of continental influence, we are still very far from leveraging on our larger-than-life image in the fight against climate change. Kenya has an ambitious Climate Change Action Plan, spanning adaptation, finance, institutional arrangements, mitigation, technology, capacity development and knowledge management, which is being presented at the current Doha COP. Ethiopia has a Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy which supports an array of investments including electric power generation from renewable sources, scaling up of the use of more efficient stoves, and increasing the efficiency of the livestock sector. Similarly, Ghana and Mozambique have national climate change strategies and the Gambia is integrating climate change responses into its Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment.
Finally, it is sad to note that the first half of the Doha climate talks ended last Saturday without achieving any major progress on the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the world's legally binding climate treaty. Uptil now, developed countries are still reluctant to make further emission cuts pledge as urged by developing countries. The EU has pledged to reduce its emissions by at least 20 per cent by 2020 but set conditions for a further 30 per cent cut. The US is blocking progress towards a longer-term global deal; while Canada, Japan, New Zealand, among others, are still keeping away from the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Everybody is also divided on the length of the second period of the Protocol. The EU and the BRICS countries – Brazil, India China, and South Africa – propose it should be eight years as it could then be linked with the existing 2020 targets; while some small, developing island states prefer a five-year period so as to push developed countries to take faster actions. With the mad house we now seem to have in Doha, I pray that the ongoing second phase negotiations, where Ministers from more than 100 countries are involved, will take the world out of the current maze into a sure-footed global climate agreement. Time is running out.
