WITH the fringe group, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, threatening to resume its violent campaign, this time targeting religious interests, all the signs point to a country slipping into the first stages of a sectarian civil war, but no one wants to acknowledge it. The Nigerian state today is replete with the symptoms of a country stripped of its symbols of statehood and, gradually, it is sliding into anarchy. The country faces security challenges that are driven, principally, by the activities of an Islamist terrorist group known as Boko Haram in the North; sectarian conflicts in Plateau State; and, perhaps, to a lesser extent, by piracy, crude oil theft, armed robbery and sundry kidnapping in the South. We must avoid a descent into a vengeful sectarian war.
Apart from MEND's threat, there was another bloodbath in Baga village, Borno State on Friday, which left 185 people dead. It was described as the worst bloodshed in the swelling violence in the North. That the upsurge in violence has left the managers of Nigeria's security at their wits' end is self evident, as they strive to hurl the country back on track from a journey that seems to be set inexorably on a path to anarchy. At the level of political leadership, rather than using public money to strengthen the state security apparatus to perform its functions more effectively, it is resorting to bribing criminals and mass murderers to buy peace. All this is happening amid mindless corruption by public officials, crushing poverty and gripping unemployment among the populace.
But what already appears like a hopeless situation will, sadly, assume a more dangerous dimension if the Niger Delta militants, under the aegis of MEND, are allowed to carry out their recent threats to visit more violence on the nation. MEND's warning that it would be targeting religious interests in its resumed hostilities has the potential to plunge the country into a religious war. Codenamed Operation Barbarossa, the militant group's spokesman, Jomo Gbomo, was reported as saying, "The bombing of mosques, hajj camps, Islamic institutions, large congregations in Islamic events and assassination of clerics that propagate doctrines of hate, will form the core mission of this crusade…" The "crusade" will be carried out, ostensibly, "to save Christianity in Nigeria from annihilation."
This must not happen. But, from experience, it will be dangerous to underestimate the threats of MEND, whose members once brought the economy of the country to its knees, before the late President Umaru Yar'Adua was forced to grant them a gratuitous amnesty as an alternative to their resource control agitation in 2010. Then claiming to be fighting to draw global attention to the plight of the Niger Delta people, who had been rendered impoverished and whose land and water had been polluted by activities of oil companies, MEND had resorted to bombing oil platforms and pipelines, kidnapping and other forms of criminality that almost completely paralysed economic activities in the oil and gas industry.
Recently, some 12 policemen were reportedly killed in the Azuzuama Waterways in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area, Bayelsa State. Although doubt is still being expressed as to the perpetrators of that crime, the fact that it happened immediately after MEND came out with its threat to add to the security burden of the country – to express its displeasure with the jail sentence passed on its leader, Henry Okah, by a South African court – is a testimony to what could happen when MEND issues threats. The group has also claimed responsibility for the destruction of Oil Well 62 in Ewellesuo in Nembe LGA, Bayelsa State.
What the MEND threat has exposed, in part, is the futility of amnesty and negotiated settlement with criminals, militants and terror groups, much so when the government is perceived to be undertaking such negotiations from a position of weakness. Such a settlement may produce temporary relief, but it cannot silence gangs of miscreants forever. With the unprecedented level of oil theft currently being perpetrated, the heightened level of piracy and the now very frequent protests by youths agitating to be included in the amnesty programme of the Federal Government, it will be difficult to admit that the amnesty offered militants in the Niger Delta has been successful.
It is also a pointer to what should be expected with the amnesty currently being contemplated for members of the Boko Haram sect. The activities of Boko Haram so far have been described as a war by faceless people, without clearly defined fronts. But if MEND carries out its threats, the front will certainly be more distinctly defined and the faceless combatants will assume faces; it will become a war between Christians and Muslims. A situation such as this could hasten the break-up of Nigeria; though it may not be readily realisable, considering the huge number of Christians who are native northerners and vice versa.
Nigeria is rushing headlong into a crisis that could tear its fragile unity apart. No functioning state will surrender its monopoly of the instruments of coercion to contending groups within its defined territory. While MEND must be stopped from carrying out its threat, the immediate challenge the Jonathan Administration must address is how to initiate the process of Nigeria's political restructuring. Nigeria's centralised system has bred a corrupt and inefficient bureaucracy, caused tension and conflicts among ethnic nationalities, and stymied economic development. There must be an end to this.
The future of the country must be debated now, particularly with a view to bringing back a workable and enduring political structure that can accommodate the divergent tendencies tearing the country apart and restore local police powers. The best way to undercut sectarian violence is to devolve more powers to the state and local governments. True federalism will pave the way for every state component to make whatever choices it will deem good for itself, while developing at its own pace and using its resources to maximise its development. Time is, indeed, running out.
