Declaration of Governor Kayode Fayemi on June 12, last week that he would run for a second term, has no doubt changed the face of politics in the state, ahead of the election which is about 12 months away.
Although before the governor's declaration, political watchers had said nothing would stop the governor from picking the ticket of his Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, especially against the backdrop of his endorsement for a second term by leaders of the party. These observers hinged their calculation on what they described as "his exceptional performance in office."
However, so far, only a loud dissenting voice has come from the ACN against the governor's endorsement by leaders of the party. The opposition came from a chieftain of the party and House of Representatives member, Hon Opeyemi Bamidele, who said the endorsement did not stop any interested member from contesting the primary against the governor. Bamidele has however, said he would make public his intention in the 2014 election public at the appropriate time.
Before now, there has been an array of governorship hopefuls on the platform of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, just as Accord Party and Labour Party in the state have stepped up activities with boasts to produce the governor of the state in 2014.
Today, as the Supreme Court has dismissed the suit by former Governor Olusegun Oni of the PDP against the October 15, 2010 Appeal Court verdict that removed him from office and declared Fayemi the duly elected governor, the distraction and anxiety over the outcome of the case have gone to the dustbin of history as the coast is now clear for a 2014 governorship election.
However, among the two leading political parties in the state, the ACN and the PDP, there are certain contending issues, the resolution of which are expected to affect the emergence of a winner in the 2014 election.
The contentious zoning arrangement
Principal among the issues is the clamour for the zoning of the governor- Two years of National Assembly ship slot to the South Senatorial District in 2014. Proponents of zoning arrangement said the remaining two districts – North and Central – had produced governors each while the South is yet to produce since the creation of the state about 17 years ago.
The issue of zoning gains ground in the opposition PDP where no fewer than 27 governorship hopefuls have emerged. The advocates are saying it is the turn of the Southern Senatorial District to produce the next governor of the state. Although some candidates of the party from Central and Northern districts are against the position, the agitation appears to be gaining ground by the day.
While adherents said the agreement on zoning was subscribed to across political party lines, the leadership of ACN said its party was not part of such an agreement and that the party's focus is, fielding competent and visionary candidates for elections, who could deliver the good, and as well meet the yearnings and aspirations of Ekiti people.
This, however, remains a time bomb. Political analysts have expressed fears of the possibility of zoning affecting the outcome of the forthcoming election in the state. According to them, the possibilities are there that all may not be well in the opposition PDP if at the end of the day, the candidate of the party emerges from a senatorial zone other than South.
The analysts are also of the view that conversely, the emergence of PDP candidate from the South Senatorial District may affect the fortunes of the ruling ACN negatively, especially that the contenders for the ticket of the ruling party, Fayemi and Bamidele are from the Northern and Central senatorial districts respectively. This school of thought foresees people from the Southern district across party lines rallying round a candidate from the area.
How party candidates emerge
Another contentious issue that is likely to shape the 2014 governorship election in Ekiti State is how the candidates of the two leading parties emerge as history is replete with a gale of defections and other anti-party activities that had always attended discontent with party primaries.
For the PDP to remain intact to pursue its dream of reclaiming power through the election, how it chooses its candidate among the 27 contenders jostling for the ticket matters. State PDP Chairman, Mr. Makanjuola Ogundipe, minces no word at any point in time in assuring the aspirants of level-playing ground in the build-up to and conduct of the party's shadow election.
The aspirants are not pretending as well as they do not hesitate to say that they would cooperate with the eventual winner of the primary "provided he emerges in a free, fair and credible primary." This, perhaps, is the reason some observers are of the strong opinion that the PDP will not remain a united house after the primary, saying that will be the undoing of the party in the election.
The ruling ACN is not free as well. With just an inkling that Bamidele will contest the primary against the incumbent who the leadership and a cross section of the party have endorsed for a second term in office, the House of Representatives member and his supporters have experienced series of attacks allegedly in the hands of party members loyal to the governor.
Although, Bamidele, an ACN founding member, is yet to declare exactly what he wants and under which political party he will pursue his ambition, especially as his party members see him more as a stranger, analysts have doubted the possibility of free and fair primary in the party, especially that the party leaders, including the state chairman, Chief Olajide Awe, have endorsed the governor.
Pundits are of the view that the opposition Accord Party and Labour Party will be the beneficiaries of the fallout of dissatisfaction with the outcome of the primaries of the two major parties, if not well handled.
This is why they say it is too early in the day to write off other political parties in the state yet, as they are being repositioned as the "beautiful bride" for politicians willing change base.
Conflict management and resolution
Another thing that will either make or mar the different political parties in the state and by extension, have impact on the 2014 election is the manner the parties handle their internal conflicts. Although the PDP in the state recently denies existence of factions in its fold, it is apparent that is far from the situation on ground.
The crisis thrown up by the state congress of the party which produced the incumbent State Executive Council has defied resolution and the party still operates along factional lines with key leaders such as former Governor Oni and his men on one side and others including former Governor Ayo Fayose and Police Affairs Minister, Navy Captain Caleb Olubolade on the other. The factions become more visible with the different aspirants jostling for the ticket of the party.
The ruling ACN also has its share of internal conflict, which experts say has to be resolved once and for all before the party goes into the election. Apart from the frequent clashes between party members loyal to the governor and those loyal to Bamidele's supporters, there are pockets of discontent among some party members, whose complaints had been that they did not get what they deserved from the party which they laboured for and as well denied themselves to put in place. Political analysts said the party should watch out for such members and resolve the crisis to prevent further defections as the one at Erijiyan-Ekiti which brought about attacks.
Campaign issues
The issues that the parties will line up for campaign to garner votes remain another factor that will shape the 2014 governorship election in the state. While the ruling ACN will showcase the achievements of the present administration of Governor Fayemi at the state and local government levels, using what they have done as the foundation for further ones, the opposition PDP, as its aspirants have already been doing while stating why they wish to administer the state, will point out the perceived inadequacies of the government and as well highlight the achievements of the previous PDP administrations in the state.
As the political parties prepare for the elections, how they craft their campaign issues will go a long way in enabling them sway the interest of the electorate to see the need to vote for this party and not that party.
The candidates
The pedigree and credibility of the candidates presented by the contending political parties are also vital issues in the forthcoming governorship election as the people would always want somebody who they are convinced will take the state to higher heights. This is the especial reason none of the political parties should take quality and competence for granted in the choice of their candidates.
At present, some of the aspirants willing to become candidates of their respective parties are, Dr Kayode Fayemi and Hon Opeyemi Bamidele for the ACN and Barrister Kole Ajayi for Accord Party.
Those of the PDP include former Police Affairs Minister, Navy Captain Caleb Olubolade; former governor, Fayose; former deputy governors, Chief Abiodun Aluko, Mr Bisi Omoyeni and Mrs Biodun Olujimi; Senator Gbenga Aluko; Senator Ayo Arise; former House of Assembly Speaker, Hon Femi Bamisile; Prince Dayo Adeyeye; and Dr Peter Obafemi, among others.
